Category Archives: Politics

Posts about politics and politicians

British Values 0, Terrorism 1

I find the killing of British citizens by drone strike in Syria a very disturbing development. UK military forces killed two of its own citizens in a pre-emptive drone strike. Two problems emerge:

  1. The use of armed force in Syria defies the will of Parliament which voted against the extension of extend armed military action from Iraq into Syria.
  2. It appears to violate international law.

Overruling Parliament’s Will

David Cameron has argued that, “in an emergency”, the Prime Minister can take military action against the will of parliament.

Firstly, this demonstrates the woolliness of our famously unwritten constitution, giving great power to the executive of the day to make up the rules as they go along, to suit current needs.

Secondly, I have seen no evidence of any intended actions by the targets which would amount to an “emergency”. What appears to be the case is that these evil, misguided individuals were plotting to take violent, murderous action at some high profile events which have already happened, so they didn’t actually do it.

Illegality

A test case of 1837 established that it is legal for a country to take pre-emptive lethal action in self-defence in very limited circumstances. A threat against the state must be imminent and there must be no feasible alternative option to prevent the threat. The action must be proportionate to the threat. There is nothing in the government’s statement that could possibly be interpreted that the threat from these individuals was imminent. So the criteria were not met and the action was illegal.

Imminent?

The government has so far resisted publishing the legal advice it was given on the legality of the attack. Of particular concern is the suspicion that the British government has adopted the same re-writing of the meaning of “imminent” as the Americans. A leaked internal US white paper from 2011 radically redefined the idea of “imminence”. It states:

The condition that an operational leader present an imminent threat of violent attack against the United States does not require the United States to have clear evidence that a specific attack on US persons and interests will take place in the immediate future.”

In plain English: “imminent = they might attack us at some time in the future”.

British Values or Barbarism?

Cameron and his predecessor have been banging on about so-called “British values” for some years. Key tests of those values include respect for the law and following due process. Civilized democracies don’t do extra-judicial killing. Those targeted were truly evil individuals who wanted to do grievous harm, including the murder of innocent civilians in pursuing their warped and ultra-intolerant views.

But Britain now appears to be more barbaric than at any time since 1837. Every time we take a step towards the barbarism they espouse, the terrorists score a victory.

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Rain

Meteorologists stated today that Britain has now experienced the longest period of rain since records began. This spell now beats the previous record, set during the second half of the 19th century. Forecasters are reluctant to predict when this period of rain will end. The BBC forecast, despite its usual reputation for balance, was shrouded in a thick fog of sycophancy.

All forecasters agree that, following this period of rain, we should expect a short, stormy period of very wet weather, which is likely to cause disruption to travel plans, particularly in the Westminster area. Following this stormy period, a longer spell of more steady rain is expected.

queen umbrellaOther countries appear to have avoided suffering long periods of rain for many years. France and the USA, for example, following intense periods of intellectual investment, solved the rain problem in the late 18th century. The problem, however, is not entirely overcome in the United States, which still suffers occasional dynastic showers.

Commentators have speculated on why Britain has failed to invest in the intellectual technology required to overcome these continual outbreaks of rain. Following a brief brighter spell in the run-up to the 2010 general election, senior meteorologists in the UK have again reverted to the position of climate change deniers. A further period of hope emerged in 2012, when the MCC (Meteorological Cricket Club) proposed the so-called “Lords Reform” to tackle one of the underlying mechanisms prolonging the problem. Alas, this was undermined by the senior members of the MCC and the plan came to nothing: rain stopped play.

Expert opinion believes the underlying cause of the UK’s failure is the famous British “phlegm”. This is a chronic condition made worse by the high levels of humidity caused by the amount of rain, thus creating a debilitating vicious circle.

An umbrella group of MPs, the “long to rain over us” faction, expressed complete satisfaction with the current state of affairs.

And now the shipping forecast…

Dogger Bank: an unauthorised release by a rogue forecaster, Ashley Madison, has led to the breakdown in the relationship between the BBC and the Met Office.

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Anyone Who Had a Heart

…doesn’t include David Cameron.

The dismal performance of our Prime Minister seems to have come to a head in the past week. I’m thinking in particular of his uncomfortable, embarrassed, eye-contact avoiding interview on TV recently in response to the continuing humanitarian crisis of mass migration into Europe.

It has been obvious to me for some years just how weak a politician he has turned out to be. An example was the controversial veto of an EU agreement 2-3 years ago: a double own-goal. The rest of Europe’s leaders simply ignored his veto and went ahead without the UK. Cameron’s action reduced further any goodwill the other leaders may show him in future negotiations over EU reform.

I also quickly noticed his repeated habit of making pious, sympathetic, statements on some topic and then proceeding to do the exact opposite of what he had said. This seems to be driven by a desire to be liked by his audience, at the expense of being seen to be inconsistent and untrustworthy. For example, his pre-2010 tree-hugging, husky-loving “greenest government ever” public claim soon gave way to an overheard private comment to cut the “green crap”.

Cameron has repeatedly demonstrated poor judgement, as the following two examples show. Firstly, the appointment of Andy Coulson as his communications director was made despite warnings that the choice would be unwise. Secondly, the rash claim to reduce net immigration to a few tens of thousands was made despite him not having the powers to control this figure, as the recent record figure of over 300,000 for 2014 has shown.

His weakness is seen in the failure to stand up to his own backbenchers and UKIP, which had two main consequences:

  1. Being gradually forced into a position where he had to concede an “in-out” referendum on EU membership with an arbitrary target date when the timetable for proper negotiations was outside his control;
  2. On immigration, a deliberate, and morally despicable, blurring of the distinction between asylum seekers, refugees and “economic migrants” has boxed him into a position where he cannot convincingly speak on the more heart-rending news events without appearing to contradict his earlier narrative. The repeated assertion of the myth that immigrants are attracted to Britain because of our generous benefits has no basis in evidence. It also leaves Cameron nowhere to hide – when pictures confirming the sheer desperation of people fleeing murderous regimes show just how ludicrous such a claim is.

The tragic sight of little Aylan Kurdi on the beach and the desperation, dignity and determination of a group of Syrians marching together from Hungary to Austria has changed the moral landscape of the immigration issue. It puts Angela Merkel and Germany on the moral high ground and leaves Cameron – and by implication the rest of us – portrayed as mean-spirited and misanthropic.

Cameron needs to be reminded of three things:

  1. There is such a thing as compassion: people can rise to performing acts of enormous kindness to strangers, particularly if given inspirational leadership to do so. Look at the cheering crowds at a German railway station!
  2. There is more to life than the narrow pursuit of material self-interest.
  3. The “national interest” is not synonymous with that of his rich friends and Tory Party donors in the City.

Perhaps it’s too much to expect a member of the Bullingdon Bully Boys Club to understand these simple facts. Britain deserves better than this.

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Job Interview

Imagine the scene: a discreet, oak-panelled office, somewhere in Whitehall. The year is 1952. A man sits at a large, highly-polished desk. A young woman, in her mid-twenties, enters the room. The man stands up to greet her.

Man (interviewer): Good morning, Mrs Windsor, do take a seat.

Woman (candidate): Thank you.

(They sit)

Man: Do make yourself comfortable. There’s a glass of water* there if you need it, Mrs Windsor, or do you mind if I call you Betty?

Woman: Yes, I’m afraid one does mind.

(* tap water, of course: This is 1952! Duchy Original Royal Deeside Mineral Water, 95p for 750ml from Waitrose, came much later. Also, yes, I made up the Betty bit, just for fun. No one in 1952 would dream of being so informal to a stranger they’ve just met. False bonhomie, pretending to be your best friend, by telephone cold callers and the like, is a 21st century phenomenon. But I digress…)

Man: Sorry, Mrs Windsor. So, first, let me ask you, what skills do you have that make you suitable for this job?

Woman: Well… (pause), one was born…

Man (interrupting): Thank you, Mrs Windsor, no more questions. Or should I call you Your Majesty? Congratulations, you’ve got the job.

Ridiculous? I think so – let me explain.

Choosing a Head of State

When it comes to choosing a head of state, I start from two basic principles:

  1. Like the Americans say: we hold these truths to be self-evident: all are born equal.
  2. Selection for head of state is the greatest honour the people of a country can bestow on one of its citizens.

Dangerous, subversive stuff? I don’t think so – just plain common sense. Reducing the choice of head of state to an accident of birth, to me, creates two problems:

  1. As it takes no effort on behalf of the “winner”, it devalues the honour of the appointment to a meaningless nothing.
  2. It insults the whole electorate, who cannot be trusted to make the “right” choice.

I find the idea that some people are born “better” than others abhorrent and quite out of place in a modern democracy. Surely people must earn their status through their own efforts. All sorts of basically undemocratic practices follow from the status quo. For example, the politicians who passed the Parliament Act in 1911 would surely be horrified to learn that, 104 years on, reform of the House of Lords – an intrinsically corrupt body based on past or present patronage – has not been completed.

Let’s Have a Debate

I have no fully-formed set of proposals for what should replace the monarchy – although the Republic of Ireland seems a good model to start from. My wish would be that we start a grown-up debate around 2 points:

  1. What should the role of our head of state be?
  2. What is the best method of selecting him or her? This would include term of office, and qualifying criteria, if any, that candidates must possess. (As a starter, I would exclude people who have been MPs or senators, either for life or perhaps for a fixed period: 7 years seems about right.)

At any rate, can we please be treated as adults and have a mature public debate about such matters before the next one is thrust upon us?

 

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Some Are More Equal

Most people remember the line “All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others”. This comes at the end of George Orwell’s Animal Farm, when the idealism of the original Seven Commandments has degenerated to this last, cynical, depressing “rule”.

But earlier in the tale, the animals do their best to learn the original seven. The sheep, bless their dear, stupid woolly socks, can only manage to bleat “four legs good, two legs ba-ad”.

Which reminds me of something…

The FMFs Again

I wrote about Free Market Fundamentalism (FMF) in my post Why George Osborne Is Only Half Human. The FMFs make a number of assertions:

  • Societies work best when markets are free from government interference
  • Private sector organisations work better than public ones
  • Salary is a reliable guide to someone’s worth to the economy
  • Making poor people poorer by cutting benefits incentivizes them to work harder
  • Making rich people richer by cutting their taxes incentivizes them to work harder (or stay in the country and add value)
  • Wealth trickles down naturally from the richest to the poorest
  • Using the law to settle disputes works better than regulation
  • Taxation should be as low as possible (and ideally at a flat rate for all)
  • Government spending crowds out private investment
  • Consequentially, Governments should shrink.

That’s a long list for people to carry around in their heads all the time, unless they’re professionally involved in economics: people have busy lives. But busy people such as politicians, business leaders and journalists, just like the sheep in Animal Farm, do seem to keep one idea in their heads:

“Private sector good, public sector ba-ad”.

I’ll comment more on the assertions listed above in future posts. But, for now, I say: “Ba-ah, humbug!!”

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Death of the Northern Powerhouse

With news of the cancellation, only 6 weeks after the election, of major rail improvements to support the creation of a “Northern Powerhouse”, here’s a tale of when the last one was killed off by the first wave of free market fundamentalism.

In the summer of 1980, my boss thought it would be a good idea for me to attend the Oxford University Business Summer School. This was a course aimed at aspiring managers and was essentially the economics part of the first year PPE (politics, philosophy and economics) undergraduate course, crammed into three weeks of study. My fellow students came from medium to large employers across the country, in a variety of different sectors of the economy.

1980 saw the first of the home-grown and entirely unnecessary economic slumps, this one brought on by Thatcher’s great experiment called monetarism, at that time part of the new religion of Free Market Fundamentalism. (See my earlier post, Jam tomorrow on the M3, for more on my views of monetarism.) The recession was hitting manufacturing and the north of England particularly hard. Some of my co-learners worked in such industries.

We had many after-dinner speakers from the upper echelons of politics, academia, business and trade unions (yes, they were still listened to then). One speaker I particularly remember was one of the first of the new breed of City traders. His talk started by gently ridiculing the Old City Gentleman (seen on the left below), with his old-school tie code of ethics: “my word is my bond”, etc. He compared this unfavourably with the shiny, thrusting new City type (such as himself), who would sweep away the old ways. (The City “Big Bang” of deregulation was still a couple of years away.)

In the picture he painted, the new City was one enormous game of monopoly (playing with other people’s money), huge fun and with lots of money to be made. He all but invited his audience to abandon their own careers and follow the path he’d chosen.

Old and New City gents
City Gents – old and new

During the question and answer session which followed, the discussion got quite heated. I distinctly remember two fellow students from northern industries: they were solid, respectable and, in all probability, “natural” Conservative voters. In the debate, they got very angry indeed, forcefully pointing out the enormous problems government policies were causing their industries, especially for exports.

There was absolutely no meeting of minds: they were living in different worlds.

I don’t know to this day whether my fellow students prospered or even if their companies survived. Nor, indeed, how many millions our city friend went on to make. But I did see at first hand the very personal pressures that were only just beginning as a result of the irresistible rise of the City and the destruction of our former northern industries.

Osborne was, until yesterday, speaking of a great revival of a northern powerhouse. It would have been a great deal simpler if his predecessors hadn’t destroyed the one we had in the first place.

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Everybody Knows

Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows that the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That’s how it goes…

So sang Leonard Cohen in 1988.

Labour lost the 2015 election in 2010-11 when they failed to nail the twin lies that:

  • The economy was in dire straits, as bad as Greece
  • It was all Labour’s fault.

See my verdict on these issues here.

The groans at the televised leaders’ debate on 30th April, followed by Ed Miliband being called a “liar”, said it all. Polls had shown that, by 2012, over 60% of the population believed these lies. The intervention in December 2014 into the debate by Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England at the time of the 2008 crash, made no difference.

Matters got worse when the following acts of “economy with the truth” went by without serious challenge:

  • “Benefit scroungers” were to blame. The figure quoted repeatedly, over two years, was £5 billion of “fraud and error” – note the order of those words – in the benefits system. This failed to point out that only 20% of this was fraud, representing just 0.7% of the benefits bill. It’s doubtful that attempts to drive this down further would be cost effective and would run the risk of penalising basically honest people who sometimes make mistakes.
  • Immigrants were to blame. Even the Economist, not known for its left-wing sympathies, refuted this in quoting a late 2014 piece of research which, like all previous such research, shows that immigrants continue to benefit the economy as a whole.
  • The EU was to blame. Numbers galore get bandied around in the debate, usually by someone (often, but not always, from UKIP) who has found some numbers purportedly showing the direct “cost” of EU membership. Occasionally, a pro-membership voice quotes some numbers about jobs lost if we quit. With the scope for selecting only those “facts” (which are sometimes just oft-repeated assertions) which suit the opinions of the author, any chance of arriving at a reasoned conclusion in all the noise is, frankly, impossible.

The so-called debate between the remaining contenders for the Labour Party leadership seems also to be constrained into a debating space which accommodates these lies. The usual suspects in the media will continue to ensure the dice stay loaded.

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Stuck Inside of Mobile

… with the Oxbridge Blues again

One of the enduring myths in Britain is that grammar schools aided social mobility. I will aim to demonstrate this really is a myth.

It’s undeniable that the UK has the worst record on social mobility in the western world: the graph below, taken from a just-published IMF report, shows the UK (alongside Italy) firmly at the top of the graph – which means we’re the (equal) least socially mobile country in the developed world.

Inequality and Mobility graph

So where does the myth come from? Ofsted disagrees, so it’s not them. One source is Conservative Voice, the Telegraph quoted Boris Johnson as saying so and Nigel Farage in the Express reminds us it was all Margaret Thatcher’s fault! But then, some commentators in the Telegraph disagree with others…

It’s generally agreed that social mobility was greater in the 1950s and 1960s than today and there were more grammar schools around then. But that coincidence proves nothing.

Changes in the Economy

During the 1950s and 60s, there was a major shift in working patterns, as increasing disposable income and technological progress shifted the balance of employment away from traditional working class jobs to a higher proportion of white-collar workers. Growth averaged 2.8% a year. This shift in the economy created the demand for more middle-class workers, which necessarily meant that many people from a working-class background moved up the social ladder.

By contrast, between 1980 and 2014, when growth was lower at 2.1% and most of that was grabbed by top earners as inequality increased, technology tended to destroy the middle-class jobs that were created a few decades earlier. More recently, the shift away from reliable, well-paid jobs to part-time and zero hours contracts has witnessed a halt to long-term rising productivity and standards of living. Who would have imagined forty years ago that carwash machines would be replaced by manual labour in the 21st century?

So, for social mobility, “it’s the economy, stupid” that did it – not the education system.

Other Countries

Another look at the graph above shows that, as to be expected, social mobility in the Scandinavian countries, clustered around the bottom-left of the graph, have very much higher rates of social mobility. But all these countries have some sort of comprehensive education system. So, their schools are not holding them back. It’s also striking how low inequality goes with high social mobility. This is fairly obvious if you think of mobility as a ladder. It’s much easier to climb if the ladder isn’t so long and the spaces between the rungs are closer together.

So let’s kill off the “return to grammar schools” myth once and for all.

Myth Two

And while we’re myth-busting, take a last look at the graph above and notice which country is next-highest on the graph (meaning second worst for social mobility). It’s the United States of America, the most unequal of all the western states. So the Great American Dream that, through hard work, anyone in America can make it to the top is also a myth. As Harvard Professor Michael Sandel said in a 2011 lecture broadcast on BBC4, “The American Dream is alive and well – and living in Denmark”.

So that’s two myths busted for the price of one!

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So, Was It Labour’s Fault?

Before the Tories finally get away with their version of history, let’s look at a few facts….

Debt

In 2010, the UK government debt stood at £1,100 billion pounds, no small sum! But when expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – roughly national “turnover” – this comparison with other countries in 2010 gives some perspective:
Greece:                       170%
USA:                               90%
France:                       110%
Germany:                    95%
UK:                                 60%
So, in comparison with other countries, our debt was relatively small.

Yes, but how does this compare with past years? This graph gives some perspective:

UK National DebtOver a 300 year perspective, debt rose slowly and then more rapidly to its all-time peak, just after the battle of Waterloo in 1815, of over 2½ years’ GDP. The next 100 years were spent slowly paying off this debt. The years from 1914 to 1945 show a sharp rise, reaching almost the same peak level at 238% of GDP in 1945. It then fell to a low of 29% and has continued to rise after 2010 to around 80% today, the steep rise following the global economic crash in 2008. (It’s worth noting, in passing, that the near-record levels of debt in 1945 did not prevent the Labour government creating the NHS three years later – and that wars are very expensive!!)

So, debt in 2010 was not exceptionally high by historical standards.

Deficit

So, what about the deficit: the ability of the government to live within its means in any one year? This graph shows the position since the start of the Thatcher government in 1979:

UK deficit 1979 to 2015The solid blue and red bars above show the actual deficit for each year of Conservative (or Conservative-led) and Labour governments respectively. The pale pink shows a hypothetical scenario for the years 2002-3 to 2007-8, which is when the Tories said Labour should have had a budget surplus. I’ve used a fairly arbitrary figure of 1.3%, which, by historical standards, would have been quite an achievement.

So what can we tell from the figures?

  • Their track record shows the Tories are in no position to lecture Labour about budget surpluses!
  • At March 2002, the final year of Labour surpluses, national debt stood at 29.3%, close to the record low.
  • Six years later, after Labour “profligacy” and at the start of the global crash, it had risen to 36.7%, a rise of just over one percentage point a year.
  • In the next two years, deficits rose sharply causing the debt to shoot up another 25 percentage points, to 62%. This resulted from the “nationalisation” of record private debts by rescuing the banks and pumping money into the economy.
  • Deficits then slowly decline to around half the 2010 level, in contrast to Osborne’s prediction, at the 2010 “emergency” budget, of eliminating the deficit by 2015.

What conclusions can we draw? On some simplifying assumptions (which work very much in the Tories’ favour), if Brown and Darling had followed Osborne’s retrospective advice, national debt would have fallen to a 300-year low of 25% of GDP at the start of the crash, rather than the actual 37%. This certainly would have helped a bit, but is enormously overshadowed by the effects of the recklessness of the financial sector.

Who’s to Blame?

No one saw the crash coming in 2007-8. Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England said it wasn’t Labour’s fault, but rather “a shared intellectual view right across the entire political spectrum”. Even using my simplifying calculations (heavily biased in the Tories’ favour), blame would be apportioned:

  • 80% financial sector
  • 20% Labour Government.

And that’s before we even consider the benefits (Sure Start centres, increased NHS spending, etc.) that the extra money was used for.

One final thought about numbers – just a coincidence, I’m sure:

  • 37%: National debt at the start of the crash
  • 37%: Proportion of the vote to secure a Tory Government in 2015.

It’s a funny old world, isn’t it?

 

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Why George Osborne Is Only Half Human*

* economically speaking

Two events from recent history:

  1. The Berlin Wall fell in 1989 – the symbolic end to communism as a way of organising society and the economy.
  2. With the collapse of Lehman Brothers and government rescue of failing banks, Free Market Fundamentalism – my term for neoliberalism or neoconservatism – collapsed in 2008.

No serious commentator in the west or in the former Soviet bloc doubts event one, but many are still in denial about event two. Gideon George Osborne is one such person.

The “EffEmEffs”

Now, to back-track a bit. (This is not meant to be a lecture on the history of economics. Much, perhaps too much, has already been written on the clash of the ideas of Keynes and those of Hayek and Friedman. Suffice it to stay, the latter got the upper hand nearly forty years ago and won’t let go.)

As is well known, the core message of free market fundamentalism is that market forces are the best and most efficient way of organising society and the economy. Each individual pursuing his or her own interests leads to the best possible outcomes. Governments should “keep out” from interfering in the workings of markets.

I was instinctively against such ideas when they first emerged into public debate in the early 1980s, but could not articulate a full, coherent argument against the FMF movement.

Markets Increase Inequality

It was clear even then that free markets, left to themselves, would, over time, lead to ever increasing levels of inequality. The “invisible hand” of millions of individual decisions about which products and services would be bought and sold, and at what price, inevitably leads to an economy at odds with people’s preferred wishes overall. There would be more luxury goods in the world and fewer doctors, nurses and teachers than people would choose if asked to express their priorities directly. The reason is simple: in free markets, choices are made by the “votes” of each transaction: the more money someone has, the more “votes”. Markets thus respond in a way that makes poor people poorer and the rich richer. Even the smallest initial levels of inequality, processed through the amplifying effect of repeated transactions with the rich getting most say, lead to an ever-widening gap between rich and poor. This is an immutable law of free markets.

The Psychopathic Economy

Imagine for a moment, if you will, that the economy is a person. We would say that that person, exhibiting the behaviour required by the FMFs, has a severe personality disorder. Such a person would have a high risk of antisocial, predatory or even criminal behaviour. In lay terms, we’d call them a psychopath.

Curiosity Conscience Competition CompassionNow, using the Four Cs framework from my earlier post Being Human II: The Four Cs, it is easy to see why this should be so. Free market rules (i.e. pursuing self-interest) do not represent human thinking. The twin attributes “curiosity” and “competition” are modelled fully in the workings of markets. But the balancing attributes of “conscience” and “compassion” are missing completely.

George Osborne is our national cheerleader for the “EffEmEffs”. And it’s in that way that he is only half human.

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